Democracy under pressure: fading support amid rising violence

Although majority of African countries hold regular elections, survey evidence shows that many citizens see them as ineffective, and commitment to democracy varies both between countries and within countries over time. In various countries there is data indicating that fewer young people are registered and intend to vote. Simultaneously, past two decades are marked by increasing levels of conflict. This paper examines the relationship between conflict and democracy, in particular how exposure to violence influences citizens' perceptions of effectiveness of the government, their support for democracy, and electoral participation. The effect of violence on political participation and support for democracy is ex ante ambiguous. On the one hand, fear of violence can deter participation and lead to political disengagement. Citizens may also believe that democratic governments are less effective at deterring violence. On the other hand, violence can create resistance against the perpetrator. Therefore, state repression and other government-related violence could also increase demand for democracy. We first provide comprehensive descriptive evidence across several African countries and spanning 20 years, suggesting that both violent events and demonstrations are associated with lower satisfaction with democracy. Additionally, exposure to violent events is significantly correlated with lower support for democratic government. Second, to provide evidence on the direction of causality, we exploit the timing of the Afrobarometer field work and the occurrences of violent events. We combine detailed geocoded information on the occurrence of protests and political conflict together with sub-nationally geocoded Afrobarometer data across many African countries.