ifo Media Center
The ifo Institute invites you to participate in the discussion of interesting economic topics via the Internet. In our ifo Media Center a whole series of remarkable events are available and can be viewed in full length. We also record selected speeches and presentations given by employees or at events and make them available in our Media Center.
ifo Economic Forecast for Eastern Germany and Saxony Summer 2020: Eastern German Economy in Coronavirus Recession
The ifo Institute expects economic output in eastern Germany for the current year to slump by 5.9 percent. In Saxony, the decline is likely to be even more pronounced at minus 6.4 percent, owing to the larger proportion of industry there. However, the fall in gross domestic product will be somewhat less severe than in Germany as a whole (minus 6.7 percent). In the coming year, economic growth in eastern Germany and Saxony is likely to see a strong recovery, with growth rates of 5.8 percent and 6.3 percent, respectively (Germany: 6.4 percent), and will return to its pre-crisis level before the end of the year.
ifo Business Climate Saxony Improves (June 2020)
The ifo Business Climate Index for Saxony saw a sharp rise in June from 81.8 to 88.3 points. It seems that the decline of the past few months is over. Sentiment brightened mainly thanks to the major improvement in business expectations. However, the survey participants’ assessments of their current situation fell slightly compared to the previous month.
Eurozone Economic Outlook: Historic collapse of Eurozone economy (July 2020)
The lockdown measures in the euro area from mid-March onwards have forced many companies to slow abruptly down their activity. This caused GDP to fall remarkably in Q1 2020 by 3.6%. The greatest negative contribution came from private consumption. Households reduced their activities in response to rising Covid-19 infection numbers and following governments’ orders or advices on staying at home and respecting social distancing rules.
ifo Economic Forecast Summer 2020: German Economy Heads Back Up
The coronavirus pandemic and the measures to contain it have plunged the German economy into what is by far the deepest recession in its post-war history. Due to the low production of goods and services during the shutdown, growth rates should be strong at 6.9% and 3.8% in the third and fourth quarters. Nevertheless, economic output is expected to be 6.7% lower on average this year than in 2019. The recovery will continue next year. GDP is expected to grow by 6.4% on average over the year.
ifo Business Climate Eastern Germany: On Track for Recovery (June 2020)
In June 2020, there were stronger signs of recovery in the eastern German economy following the major slump in spring. The ifo Business Climate Index for the entire regional economy in eastern Germany jumped from 81.7 to 88.6 points. This was mainly attributable to the continuation of the strong upward trend in the survey participants’ expectations that began in the previous month. Meanwhile, assessments of the current situation by the eastern German survey participants are also on their way up again.
ifo Employment Barometer Rises Strongly (June 2020)
German companies are no longer quite so pessimistic about employment. The ifo Employment Barometer climbed to 92.3 points in June after measuring 88.3 points in May. And while companies are still making redundancies, the trend was somewhat less negative than in the previous months.
ifo Export Expectations Rise Considerably (June 2020)
Sentiment among German exporters has recovered markedly. In June, the ifo Export Expectations for manufacturing rose from minus 26.7 points to minus 2.3 points - an unprecedented rise within one month. German industry is embarking on the road to recovery.
ifo Business Climate Index Rises Strongly (June 2020)
Sentiment among German companies has brightened further. The ifo Business Climate Index rose from 79.7 points (seasonally adjusted) in May to 86.2 points in June. This is the strongest increase ever recorded. Companies’ assessments of their current situation were somewhat better. Moreover, their expectations leaped higher. German business sees light at the end of the tunnel.
First Glimmer of Hope for Saxony’s Economy (May 2020)
The ifo Business Climate Index for Saxony rose in May from 78.0 to 81.6 points, representing the first glimmer of hope for the state’s economy. The improvement registered on the sentiment barometer was driven by the strong upswing in business expectations; the survey participants’ assessments of their current situation once again declined somewhat. However, both sub-indices remain deep in unfavorable territory.
Coronavirus Crisis: Economists Evaluate Shifted Priorities in Economic Policy Responses
The coronavirus pandemic is having a huge impact on the economy. How bad the economic consequences will be is not foreseeable at this point in time. After initial ad hoc reactions by governments and central banks, fiscal policy priorities are shifting toward economic stimulus packages. The aim of the measures is to enable rapid economic recovery. The 29th ifo and FAZ Economists Panel focuses on the economic policy measures in Germany and at the European level. A total of 120 economists took part in the survey.
ifo Economic Forecast 2020 Update: Economic Contraction of 6.6 Percent in Germany Most Likely (28.5.2020)
The German economy will probably shrink by 6.6 percent this year and then grow from this low level by 10.2 percent next year, according to the updated ifo Economic Forecast for 2020/2021. “This is based on our evaluation of the ifo survey conducted among companies in May. On average, participants consider it most likely that their own business situation will return to normal in nine months,” says Timo Wollmershaeuser, Head of Forecasts at ifo.
ifo Business Climate Eastern Germany: A Glimmer of Hope, but No More (May 2020)
In May 2020, the first glimmer of hope appeared for the eastern German economy. The ifo Business Climate Index for the entire regional economy in eastern Germany again headed upward, rising from 78.9 to 81.4 points. While assessments of the current situation by the eastern German survey participants continued to decline significantly compared to the previous month, there was a strong improvement in their business expectations for the next three months. However, these remain in negative territory.
ifo Employment Barometer Rises Slightly (May 2020)
German companies are still expecting a decline in employee numbers. Nevertheless, the ifo Employment Barometer rose to 88.3 points in May after measuring 86.3 points in April. But despite this increase, the number of layoffs will again exceed that of hires, which means that unemployment in Germany is set to rise further.
ifo Export Expectations Rose Considerably (May 2020)
After a catastrophic April, sentiment among German exporters has recovered somewhat. In May, the ifo Export Expectations for manufacturing rose from minus 50.2 points to minus 26.9 points. Although this sharp increase is unprecedented, companies are still far from optimistic. However, the German export industry does see a silver lining on the horizon.
ifo Business Climate Index Recovers (May 2020)
Sentiment among German companies has recovered somewhat after a catastrophic few months. The ifo Business Climate Index rose from 74.2 points in April to 79.5 points in May. Even though companies once again assessed their current situation as slightly worse, their expectations for the coming months improved considerably. Nevertheless, many companies are still pessimistic about their business. The gradual easing of the lockdown offers a glimmer of hope.
Mood among Saxony’s Companies Continues to Plummet (April 2020)
Sentiment among companies in Saxony continued to nosedive in April, as the ifo Business Climate Index for Saxony plunged from 89.8 to 78.0 points. This is in line with the strong slump in eastern Germany and across Germany as a whole. The companies surveyed lowered their assessments of the current situation and business expectations to an unprecedented extent – the coronavirus crisis has hit all areas of Saxony’s economy.
ifo Business Climate Eastern Germany: Historic Slump – No End in Sight (April 2020)
The eastern German economy’s downward trend accelerated again in April 2020. The ifo Business Climate Index for the region’s economy as a whole plummeted from 89.6 to 78.9 points, which is in line with the strong slump across Germany as a whole. Eastern German survey participants’ assessments of the current situation and their business expectations plunged more drastically than ever before. The coronavirus crisis has hit all areas of the eastern German economy and is weighing more heavily on the mood of companies than the financial crisis did.
ifo Employment Barometer Plummets to Historic Low (April 2020)
The personnel departments of German companies are preparing for layoffs. The ifo Employment Barometer plummeted to 86.3 points in April after measuring 93.4 points in March. This represents a historic low. There has never been such a marked decline in the barometer itself, which will correspond to a rise in unemployment in Germany.
ifo Economic Forecast Spring 2020 Update: German Economic Output Collapses by 16% during Coronavirus Shutdown
During the coronavirus shutdown, economic output in Germany has collapsed by 16%. This is the result of an evaluation of April’s ifo surveys among some 8,800 companies across almost all industries. The estimate was based on the companies’ reported capacity utilization in January and in April as well as the actual and expected difference in sales in the first and second quarters.
ifo Export Expectations in Free Fall (April 2020)
Sentiment among German exporters is in free fall. In April, the ifo Export Expectations for manufacturing plunged from minus 19.0 points to minus 50.0 points. This is the lowest value ever measured, and the severity of the decline is also unprecedented. The coronavirus pandemic is leaving deep scars on export markets.
