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Worsening Order Shortage Weighs on the Self-Employed in Germany
Many of Germany’s self-employed reported that their order intake in January was too low. The proportion of those with this complaint increased to 47.9% at the start of the year, up from 45.3% in October. This is a finding from the latest ifo survey for this segment (“Jimdo-ifo Business Climate Index for the Self-Employed”). “The order books of the self-employed are plainly melting away,” says ifo expert Katrin Demmelhuber, “and the resulting decline in sales is a cause for concern.”
Sentiment in German Residential Construction at an All-Time Low
The business climate in German residential construction has fallen from -56.9 points to -59.0 points – the lowest value ever measured. The same is true for business expectations, which have sunk even further, dropping from -64.7 points to -68.9 points. “The outlook for the coming months is bleak,” says Klaus Wohlrabe, Head of Surveys at ifo. “Residential construction is still facing the double whammy of a lack of new orders and ongoing project cancellations.”
Economic Experts Survey: Substantial Risk of Recession by the End of 2024 According to Economic Experts (Q4 2023)
As the growth expectations of many experts in the Economic Experts Survey for 2024 are below average, the question arises as to how high the probability of a recession is in the respective countries. The growth forecasts did not include a confidence interval, so it could be that many experts expect significantly lower growth rates in their countries in the most pessimistic scenario. Furthermore, even if growth rates are positive for the year as a whole, a country could experience a technical recession during the year (two consecutive quarters with growth rates below 0%). To assess the likelihood of such scenarios, we asked the experts in the Economic Experts Survey about the probability of a recession occurring in their country by the end of 2024.
Weak Start to the Year for German Retailers
The ifo Business Climate in Germany’s retail deteriorated in January. Both the current business situation and business expectations for the coming months clouded over. “Consumer restraint and a lack of skilled workers will likely continue to pose challenges for many retailers in 2024,” says ifo expert Patrick Höppner.
Lack of Orders Weighs on the German Economy
The lack of orders in manufacturing is increasingly becoming a burden on the German economy. In January, 36.9% of manufacturing companies reported a lack of orders, up from 36.0% in October. A year ago, the proportion was just 20.9%. In the service sector, the proportion rose from 29.3% to 32.1%. “The lack of orders has worsened noticeably over the past year. Hardly an industry has been spared,” says Klaus Wohlrabe, Head of Surveys at ifo. “What’s more, order backlogs are shrinking.”
Material Shortages Noticeably Better in German Manufacturing
Material shortages in German manufacturing continue to reduce. In January, 12.5% of the companies surveyed reported shortages, down from 18.2% in October. “At the moment, the attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea aren’t affecting the supply situation for raw materials and intermediate products,” says Klaus Wohlrabe, Head of Surveys at ifo.
ifo Business Climate Saxony: Climate Cools Slightly (January 2024)
The business climate in Saxony cooled off slightly in January. The ifo Business Climate Index for the region’s economy fell to 91.0 points, down from 91.3 points in December. The Saxony-based companies surveyed assessed their business situation as slightly better than in December; they reduced their expectations for the coming months slightly.
German Automotive Industry Can Breathe Again
The business climate in the German automotive industry eased substantially in January, with the indicator rising to -6.3 points, up from -15.8 points* in December. “Companies in the German automotive industry are more positive about their current business situation and are much more optimistic about the coming months than they were at the end of 2023,” says Anita Wölfl, a specialist at the ifo Center for Industrial Organization and New Technologies.
More of Germany’s Consumer-Related Companies to Raise Prices
More of Germany’s consumer-related companies are planning to raise their prices. The ifo price expectations for these industries rose from 32.3 points* in December to 32.9 points in January. Price expectations increased noticeably among consumer-related service providers in particular, from 37.3 points* to 42.1 points. In retail, by contrast, the proportion of companies planning price increases declined; the balance there fell from 30.0 points* to 28.6 points. “This suggests that in the coming months, inflation will subside, but only slowly,” says Timo Wollmershäuser, Head of Forecasts at ifo.
ifo Business Climate Eastern Germany Improves Somewhat (January 2024)
The ifo Business Climate Index Eastern Germany rose slightly in January. Compared to December, the barometer of business sentiment for the regional economy in eastern Germany increased by 0.4 points to 89.0 points. The eastern German companies surveyed provided assessments of their business situation that were unchanged from the previous month and raised their business expectations slightly.
ifo Employment Barometer Falls (January 2024)
Companies in Germany have become less willing to hire new staff. The ifo Employment Barometer fell to 95.5 points in January, down from 96.5 points in December. “The difficult economic situation is now also being reflected in personnel planning,” says Klaus Wohlrabe, Head of Surveys at ifo. “Companies are rather reluctant to hire new staff. An initial round of layoffs is becoming more likely.”
German Export Expectations Fall (January 2024)
Sentiment in the German export industry has clouded over. The ifo Export Expectations fell to -8.4 points in January, down from -7.1 points in December. “The German export economy is off to a worse start in the new year,” says Klaus Wohlrabe, Head of Surveys at ifo. “Exporters need fresh momentum.”
ifo Business Climate Index Falls (January 2024)
Sentiment among German companies has deteriorated further at the beginning of the year. The ifo Business Climate Index fell to 85.2 points in January, down from 86.3 points in December. Companies assessed their current situation as worse. Their expectations for the months ahead were also once again more pessimistic. The German economy is stuck in recession.
Economic Experts Survey: Experts expect 2.6% Growth Worldwide (4th Quarter 2023)
Many countries around the world experienced a sharp decline in economic activity during the Covid-19 pandemic, followed by a gradual recovery. With high inflation, geopolitical conflicts, and ongoing supply chain disruptions, many regions of the world are once again facing uncertain economic development in the coming years. In the Economic Experts Survey for the fourth quarter of 2023, we therefore asked economic experts about their expectations for (real) GDP growth in 2024 (short-term forecasts) as well as in 2025 and 2027 (medium- and longer-term forecasts).
Peter Vogt
Head of Department Finances and Centralized Services (interim)
Business Climate in the German Chemical Industry Deteriorates
The ifo Business Climate in Germany’s chemical industry worsened in December 2023. It fell to -15.2 points, down from -13.0 points* in November. “Although the chemical industry seems to have bottomed out, there is still no sign of an impending upturn,” says industry expert Anna Wolf from the ifo Institute. Companies were less negative about their current business situation in December than in the previous month. However, their business expectations deteriorated significantly to -14.6 points, down from -6.5 points* in November.
Banks Slightly Less Reluctant to Lend to Companies in Germany
It has become slightly easier for German companies to obtain new loans. In December, 25.6% of companies in ongoing credit negotiations reported restraint on the part of banks; in September, that figure was 29.2%. “However, the banks remain cautious when it comes to lending,” says Klaus Wohlrabe, Head of Surveys at ifo.
Sentiment in the German Automotive Industry Remains Subdued
The ifo Business Climate Index for the German automotive industry remained virtually unchanged at a low level in December 2023. “However, companies in the industry were generally slightly more optimistic about 2024 than they were in November,” says Anita Wölfl, a specialist at the ifo Center for Industrial Organization and New Technologies.
ifo Business Climate Saxony: A Wintry Spell (December 2023)
The business climate in Saxony cooled noticeably in December. The ifo Business Climate Index for the region’s economy fell from 92.7 points to 91.3 points compared to the previous month. The Saxony-based companies surveyed assessed their business situation as noticeably worse than in November; they also reduced their expectations for the coming months, albeit only slightly.
Business Climate in German Residential Construction at All-Time Low
The ifo Business Climate Index for residential construction has sunk to an all-time low. Sentiment in December fell to -56.8 points, down from -54.4 points in the previous month. This is its lowest level since the survey began in 1991. Dissatisfaction with the current situation is escalating. Companies also fear further business losses in the first half of 2024. “Although interest rates for home loans have recently been falling again, there is as yet no sign that the situation is easing,” says Klaus Wohlrabe, Head of Surveys at ifo. “These exceptionally weak expectations show that companies currently have no hope. The prospects for 2024 are bleak,” Wohlrabe says.
