EconPol Forum 03/2026: Dealing with Demographics: The Policy Challenges of an Aging Europe
Europe is facing a profound demographic challenge. Across the continent, policymakers are grappling with difficult choices. Preserving the social contract that ensures the state cares for older generations will require meaningful pension reforms. Yet these reforms must be designed carefully to avoid deepening inequality and to protect the most vulnerable, including low-skilled workers and women. In this edition of our EconPol Forum, we take a deep dive into Europe's aging challenge, exploring also some of its less obvious dimensions: how aging influences attitudes towards war and peace, patience and long-term investment decisions.
An Expert View on Economic Uncertainty
Economic experts rate current economic uncertainty as high as 60.7 on a 0–100 scale, with geopolitical tensions and uncertainty surrounding energy and commodity supplies identified as leading drivers, according to a new EconPol Policy Brief. Structural vulnerabilities, particularly weak institutional and governmental frameworks as well as heavy dependence on commodity imports, further amplify uncertainty - which lowers expected GDP growth by an average of 0.8 percentage points.
Mapping the EU Landscape of Critical Raw Materials – New ifo Study
A new ifo study presents the most comprehensive analysis to date of the EU's critical raw materials value chains. The findings show that Europe accounts for more than 5% of global mining output for only 4 of the 27 critical raw materials assessed. To reduce import dependence, the EU must strengthen strategic partnerships with resource-rich countries and develop a harmonized geological and commercial knowledge base to support domestic refining and production.
Social Benefit Far Higher When Directed to Young Adults Than to Older Adults
A euro of public support for young adults generates roughly three times the social benefit of a euro spent on older working-age individuals. This is the result of a new study by EconPol based on data for France. “Transfers that help young adults stay in education are especially valuable, because they are partly self-financing through higher future earnings and tax payments,” says Marion Brouard, researcher at ifo Institute. “Today, young adults are the age group most in need of additional social assistance. Policymakers are still not taking this shift into account enough.”
How Vulnerable is European Trade to Critical Maritime Chokepoints?
The ongoing conflict in the Persian Gulf has renewed attention on the Strait of Hormuz as a critical maritime chokepoint. A new EconPol Opinion piece by Lisandra Flach shows that while the route is vital for energy and raw material imports, other chokepoints - notably the Suez Canal and Bab el-Mandeb - are of equal or greater direct importance to the German and European economies.
How Reliable is the Research Backing Public Policy?
Policymakers rely on scientific evidence to inform complex decisions. But what if the underlying research is flawed? This Policy Brief summarizes one of the largest verification studies to date, showing that full replicability in leading economics and political science journals improved from 59% in 2014 to 85% in 2026, largely due to mandatory data sharing and data editors. Yet, challenges remain: one in four significant findings is not robust to reasonable alternative specifications, and coding errors are often overlooked.
Government Actions During Energy Crises Damage the Climate
Government relief measures during energy crises primarily benefit fossil fuels and therefore have a negative climate impact, as a new study by EconPol Europe shows. According to the study, the relief packages – in the form of tax cuts, price caps, or direct payments – during the crisis years 2022 and 2023 on average across the EU-27 amount to a permanent subsidy of roughly EUR 18 per metric ton of CO2 for natural gas and EUR 10 for oil.
New Free Trade Agreements May Increase Industrial Production in the EU by up to 1.1%
Finalization of the ongoing EU free trade negotiations could boost the economy in the EU and offset the negative effects of US tariffs. That’s according to a study by EconPol Europe. Depending on the level of detail in the new trade agreements, value added in industry would permanently increase by up to 1.1% and European economic output by 0.43%.
EconPol Newsletter 03/2026
Europe’s workforce is caught in a paradox: technological change and AI threaten to displace jobs, while an aging population is creating shortages of young talent. Meanwhile, rising energy prices are placing additional jobs at risk. In this newsletter we revisit past technological revolutions to draw cautionary lessons for today's debates and examine how relief measures aimed at curbing fossil fuel prices may affect Europe’s pursuit of strategic energy autonomy. We also provide a preview of our upcoming annual conference on the future of work.
Current Publications
EconPol Forum 03/2026: Dealing with Demographics: The Policy Challenges of an Aging Europe
Europe is dealing with a profound demographic crisis. Pension reform is necessary to preserve the sustainability of public finances. At the same time, its design must account for severe welfare implications. Women are especially affected: They are too often caught between work and caregiving but face financial disadvantages if they retire early. This Policy Debate also looks at how aging shapes preferences – particularly voting patterns, attitudes toward war and peace, and patience and long-term investment decisions.
Drivers, Costs, and Coping: An Expert View on Economic Uncertainty
Uncertainty has emerged as a defining feature of our time. Drawing on the quarterly Economic Experts Survey, the authors of this study adopt an innovative approach to measuring it. Instead of adopting an indirect approach – for example, based on stock market volatility – they asked a pool of international experts to assess and quantify it. On average, the experts rated the current level in their country as 60.7 on a 0–100 scale and estimated a negative impact on GDP growth of 0.8 percentage points.
Global Europe 2.0 – The Economic Potential of New EU Trade Agreements in an Era of US Protectionism
This new Policy Report quantifies the economic potential of a "Global Europe 2.0" initiative focusing on seven key partners: the Mercosur countries, India, the United Arab Emirates, Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand. Such an initiative would bear significant potential, particularly for the EU's manufacturing sector. Moreover, the benefits would be widespread, affecting both the EU and the partner countries.
EconPol Forum
EconPol Forum (formerly CESifo Forum) is a quarterly English-language journal to bring economic analysis on topics of worldwide interest along with policy advice to a broad range of policymakers and the public.
EconPol Policy Briefs
EconPol Policy Briefs are short articles providing key findings of policy-related studies and policy implications from recent policy relevant economic research. Grounded in evidence-based insights, the Policy Briefs discuss current topics in economic and fiscal policy within a wide range of specific areas of expertise.
EconPol Policy Reports
EconPol Policy Reports conduct comprehensive economic analysis on current European economic and fiscal policy issues, fostering a deeper understanding of European economic development and the implications of policy measures. The reports provide valuable insights into policy scenarios and the impact of economic policies, facilitating informed public discussions and evidence-based policy making.