The Transformative Potential of AI: Implications for Work, Firms, and Trade
Can artificial intelligence (AI) revive the long-declining productivity of European firms and boost the continent's economic growth? How well are EU economies positioned to leverage AI while mitigating risks such as job displacement and algorithmic collusion? The answers largely depend on the business ecosystem, the speed of adoption, and – ultimately – balanced regulation and policy: Upskilling workers, strengthening digital infrastructure, and deepening the EU single market are some of the priorities discussed in this Forum.
Latest EconPol News
More Electricity Outages Due to Climate Change
Due to climate change, electricity outages could become more frequent in many countries in the coming years. This is indicated by the findings of a new study by EconPol Europe. It examines electricity outages in consumer grids from 2013 to 2023 in five countries: Germany, Australia, Brazil, China, and Mexico. “Germany has a relatively reliable electricity grid, but extreme weather and heatwaves will increasingly put pressure on the infrastructure here as well,” explains ifo researcher Jacqueline Adelowo.
Experts View AI Regulation in Germany as Barrier to Growth
Economic experts from Germany are particularly skeptical about the extent to which artificial intelligence will contribute to economic growth. That is shown by a comparison of global expert estimates in the Economic Expert Survey (EES) conducted by EconPol and the ifo Institute. Respondents in Europe estimate that the overall growth effect of AI will amount to just 1.5 percentage points over the next five years, hence 0.3 percentage points per annum. For Europe and the United States, these estimates stand at 2.5 percentage points over the next five years (0.5 percentage points per annum).
New Free Trade Agreements May Increase Industrial Production in the EU by up to 1.1%
Finalization of the ongoing EU free trade negotiations could boost the economy in the EU and offset the negative effects of US tariffs. That’s according to a study by EconPol Europe. Depending on the level of detail in the new trade agreements, value added in industry would permanently increase by up to 1.1% and European economic output by 0.43%.
EconPol Newsletter 02/2026
The consequences of the Iran war and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz are already visible in the European economy and the latest growth forecasts. EconPol has repeatedly emphasized Europe’s critical dependence on global chokepoints and the urgent need for greater resilience and sovereignty. Our latest publications reiterate this point, examining the potential of a global EU free trade initiative and the effectiveness of military export bans, and setting out an industrial strategy for technological sovereignty.
Current Publications
EconPol Forum 02/2026: The Transformative Potential of AI: Implications for Work, Firms, and Trade
Can artificial intelligence (AI) revive the long-declining productivity of European firms and boost the continent's economic growth? How well are EU economies positioned to leverage AI while mitigating risks such as job displacement and algorithmic collusion? The answers largely depend on the business ecosystem, the speed of adoption, and – ultimately – balanced regulation and policy: Upskilling workers, strengthening digital infrastructure, and deepening the EU single market are some of the priorities discussed in this Forum.
Fiscal Drag in Europe: Key Facts
Global Europe 2.0 – The Economic Potential of New EU Trade Agreements in an Era of US Protectionism
EconPol Forum
EconPol Forum (formerly CESifo Forum) is a quarterly English-language journal to bring economic analysis on topics of worldwide interest along with policy advice to a broad range of policymakers and the public.
EconPol Policy Briefs
EconPol Policy Briefs are short articles providing key findings of policy-related studies and policy implications from recent policy relevant economic research. Grounded in evidence-based insights, the Policy Briefs discuss current topics in economic and fiscal policy within a wide range of specific areas of expertise.
EconPol Policy Reports
EconPol Policy Reports conduct comprehensive economic analysis on current European economic and fiscal policy issues, fostering a deeper understanding of European economic development and the implications of policy measures. The reports provide valuable insights into policy scenarios and the impact of economic policies, facilitating informed public discussions and evidence-based policy making.