ifo Business Climate Index for Germany
The ifo Business Climate Index is a highly-regarded early indicator of economic developments in Germany published on a monthly basis. Detailed results of the ifo Business Survey are published in the ifo Konjunkturperspektiven (in German).
Current Results
ifo Business Climate Index Rises (July 2026)
Business sentiment among companies in Germany has improved. The ifo Business Climate Index rose to 86.6 points in July, up from 85.7 points in June , due to a significant improvement in expectations. However, companies were somewhat less satisfied with their current business performance. Despite the uncertain situation in the Persian Gulf, companies are less pessimistic.
ifo Business Climate Index Rises (June 2026)
Sentiment among managers in Germany has improved. The ifo Business Climate Index rose to 85.6 points in June, up from 85.0 points in May. Companies assessed their current business situation more positively. Expectations were also somewhat less skeptical. Firms perceive the business environment as less uncertain. German companies are hoping for geopolitical tensions to ease.
ifo Business Climate Index Rises (May 2026)
Sentiment among companies in Germany has recovered slightly following the slump in March and April. The ifo Business Climate Index increased in May to 84.9 points, from 84.5 points in April. The companies assessed the current business situation somewhat more favorable. Expectations for the coming months are also less pessimistic. The German economy is stabilizing for the time being, although situation remains fragile.
Upcoming Release Dates
Information on the ifo Business Climate Index
The ifo Business Climate Index is the most important leading indicator for the development of the economy in Germany. Since April 2018, the ifo Business Climate Index for Germany has served as the central economic indicator for the German economy, replacing the former index for the industrial sector. With this realignment, the indicator was significantly broadened in scope: in addition to manufacturing, construction, and the two stages of trade, the services sector has also been systematically included. At the same time, the base year for index calculation was updated from 2005 to 2015.
Publications
Sauer, Stefan / Klaus Wohlrabe
"Das neue ifo Geschäftsklima Deutschland"
ifo Schnelldienst 71 (07), 2018, 54–60.
Sauer, Stefan / Wohlrabe, Klaus
"The New ifo Business Climate Index for Germany"
CESifo Forum 19 (2), 2018, 59–64.
Sauer, Stefan / Weber, Michael / Wohlrabe,Klaus
"Das neue ifo Geschäftsklima Ostdeutschland und Sachsen: Hintergründe und Anpassungen"
ifo Dresden berichtet 25 (03), 2018, 20–24.
How the ifo Business Climate is calculated with an example to illustrate how the balance values are calculated.
The ifo Business Climate is a widely observed early indicator for economic development in Germany. It is based on ca. 9,000 monthly survey responses of firms in manufacturing, service sector, construction, wholesailing and retailing.
The firms are asked to give their assessments of the current business situation and their expectations for the next six months. They can characterise their situation as "good", "satisfactorily" or "poor" and their business expectations for the next six months as "more favourable", "unchanged" or "more unfavourable". The replies are weighted according to the importance of the industry and aggregated. The balance value of the current business situation is the difference of the percentages of the responses "good" and "poor", the balance value of the expectations is the difference of the percentages of the responses "more favourable" and "more unfavourable". The business climate is a mean of the balances of the business situation and the expectations.
An example to illustrate how the balance values are calculated:
Of 100 responding firms, 40% appraise their business situation as satisfactory, 35% as good and 25% as poor. The firms that assessed their situation as satisfactory are considered to be "neutral" and do not affect the results of the business-situation appraisal. The two remaining percentage values (35 - 25) are now balanced. The resulting value of 10 percentage points is the business-situation appraisal, i.e. the first component of the business climate in the form of a balance. The six-month expectations are calculated the same way. From the situation and expectations appraisal the mean is formed, which is the ifo Business Climate balance for the individual month:
The ifo Business Climate balances can fluctuate between extreme values of -100 (i.e., all responding firms appraise their situation as poor or expect business to become worse) and +100 (i.e., all responding firms assessed their situation as good or expect an improvement in their business).
For calculating the index values of the business climate and its components - situation and expectation - the balances are all increased by 200 and normalized to the average of a base year (currently 2015).
Seasonal Adjustment in the ifo Business Survey
Seasonal adjustment methods are used to eliminate regularly recurring annual patterns in time series and constitute a key component in the processing of the results of the ifo business surveys. For this purpose, the internationally established X-13ARIMA-SEATS procedure, developed by the U.S. Bureau of the Census, is applied and thus complies with international standards. Time series exhibiting significant trading-day effects are additionally adjusted for working-day effects.
The X-13ARIMA-SEATS methodology is based on well-defined concepts of seasonal adjustment and allows for a high degree of flexibility to accommodate the specific characteristics of individual time series. In particular, the choice of seasonal and trend filters can be tailored to each series, ensuring adaptability to different data structures. This approach contributes to stable and well-interpretable time series and improves the forecasting performance of the ifo indicators.
Sauer, Stefan / Wohlrabe, Klaus
Die Saisonbereinigung im ifo Konjunkturtest – Umstellung auf das X-13ARIMA-SEATS-Verfahren
ifo Schnelldienst 68 (01), 2015, 32–42.
Henzel, Steffen R.
Prognosekraft des ifo Konjunkturtests – Einfluss der neuen Saisonbereinigung mit X-13ARIMA-SEATS
ifo Schnelldienst 68 (01), 2015, 59–63.
Publications on the forecasting quality of the ifo Business Climate Index
The ifo Business Climate is a much considered indicator for the economic evolution in Germany. It is again and again the subject of scientific analyses in which the different qualities of the business climate are examined.
Lehmann, Robert, "The Forecasting Power of the ifo Business Survey", CESifo Working Paper No. 8291.
Wohlrabe, Klaus and Timo Wollmershäuser, "Über die richtige Interpretation des ifo Geschäftsklimas als konjunktureller Frühindikator", ifo Schnelldienst 70 (15), 2017, 42–46.
Wohlrabe, Klaus and Timo Wollmershäuser, "Der Zusammenhang zwischen Geschäftserwartungen und -lage im ifo Konjunkturtest", ifo Schnelldienst 69 (05), 2016, 42–45.
Litsche, Simon and Przemyslaw Wojciechowski, "Konjunkturtest im Fokus: Maschinenbau", ifo Schnelldienst 69 (05), 2016, 33–37.
Wojciechowski, Przemyslaw, "Konjunkturtest im Fokus: Rekordwerte in der Konjunkturumfrage im Bereich Dienstleistungen: Was treibt den Geschäftsklimaindikator in die Höhe?", ifo Schnelldienst 68 (22), 2015, 41–43.
Wojciechowski, Przemyslaw, "Konjunkturtest im Fokus: Information und Kommunikation", ifo Schnelldienst 68 (07), 2015, 57–60.
Sauer, Stefan and Klaus Wohlrabe, "Die Saisonbereinigung im ifo Konjunkturtest – Umstellung auf das X-13ARIMA-SEATS-Verfahren", ifo Schnelldienst 68 (01), 2015, 32–42.
Henzel, Steffen R., "Prognosekraft des ifo Konjunkturtests – Einfluss der neuen Saisonbereinigung mit X-13ARIMA-SEATS", ifo Schnelldienst 68 (01), 2015, 59–63.
Nierhaus, Wolfgang and Klaus Abberger, "Zur Prognose von konjunkturellen Wendepunkten: Dreimal-Regel versus Markov-Switching ", ifo Schnelldienst 67 (16), 2014, 21–25.
Henzel, Steffen and Klaus Wohlrabe, "Das ifo Beschäftigungsbarometer und der deutsche Arbeitsmarkt", ifo Schnelldienst 67 (15), 2014, 35–40.
Kudymowa, Evgenia and Klaus Wohlrabe, "Konjunkturtest im Fokus: Herstellung von Gummi- und Kunststoffwaren", ifo Schnelldienst 67 (07), 2014, 23–26.
Kudymowa, Evgenia and Klaus Wohlrabe, "Konjunkturtest im Fokus: Die Herstellung von Druckerzeugnissen; Vervielfältigung von bespielten Ton-, Bild- und Datenträgern", ifo Schnelldienst 67 (06), 2014, 31–35.
Sauer, Stefan and Christian Seiler, "Konjunkturtest im Fokus: Die Beurteilung der Lagerbestände im Handelsgewerbe", ifo Schnelldienst 67 (04), 2014, 41–44.
Henzel, Steffen and Sebastian Rast, "Prognoseeigenschaften von Indikatoren zur Vorhersage des Bruttoinlandsprodukts in Deutschland", ifo Schnelldienst 66 (17), 2013, 39–46.
Abberger, Klaus, Manuel Birnbrich and Christian Seiler, "Der »Test des Tests« im Handel – eine Metaumfrage zum ifo Konjunkturtest", ifo Schnelldienst 62 (21), 2009, 34–41.
Abberger, Klaus and Wolfgang Nierhaus, "Das ifo Geschäftsklima: Ein zuverlässiger Frühindikator", ifo Schnelldienst 60 (05), 2007, 25–30.
Abberger, Klaus and Wolfgang Nierhaus, "Das ifo Geschäftsklima und Wendepunkte der deutschen Konjunktur", ifo Schnelldienst 60 (03), 2007, 26–31.
Goldrian, Georg, Handbook of survey-based business cycle analysis, Ifo Economic Policy, 2, Elgar, Cheltenham, 2007, IX, 247.
Abberger, Klaus and Klaus Wohlrabe, "Einige Prognoseeigenschaften des ifo Geschäftsklimas - Ein Überblick über die neuere wissenschaftliche Literatur", ifo Schnelldienst 59 (22), 2006, 19–26.
Abberger, Klaus, "ifo Geschäftsklima und Produktionsindex im verarbeitenden Gewerbe", ifo Schnelldienst 59 (21), 2006, 42–45.
Sinn, Hans-Werner and Klaus Abberger, "Zur Prognosekraft des ifo Indikators", ifo Schnelldienst 59 (04), 2006, 35–36.
Goldrian, Georg, "Anmerkungen zu einer Untersuchung des prognostischen Gehalts von ifo Geschäfts- und ZEW-Konjunkturerwartungen", ifo Schnelldienst 54 (10), 2001, 33.
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