Who’s Afraid of Trump in the White House? How German Firms View the US Election

How do German firms view the upcoming US election and a possible second Donald Trump presidency? As part of the ifo Business Survey in September 2024, more than 2,000 German manufacturing firms were asked about the US election. 44 percent of German manufacturing firms anticipate negative impacts on their business situation if Donald Trump wins the election, compared to a potential Kamala Harris presidency.

Key Messages

• The US market plays a crucial role for German industry, with a significant portion of German manufacturing firms maintaining export, import, or production relationships with the US economy 
• 44 percent of German manufacturing firms anticipate negative impacts on their business situation if Donald Trump wins the election, compared to a potential Kamala Harris presidency 
• Firms expecting negative consequences from a Trump presidency tend to rate Harris' chances of winning more favorably 
• On the eve of the US elections, only 4 percent of German manufacturing companies are currently planning concrete adjustment measures for a potential second Trump presidency