US Reciprocal Tariffs and the Erosion of Global Trade Rules: Implications for Germany

Key Messages

• The average tariff gap for traded products between the US and the EU is around 0.5 percentage points, which is relatively low compared to other US trade partners.
• US tariff changes aimed at closing the tariff gap between the US and the EU could affect 53% of German exports to the US and 6% of German global exports. While a wide range of products would be affected, the tariff increase would remain relatively small for three quarters of traded products, as their tariff gaps are below 2.3%.
• Our simulations show that higher US “reciprocal” tariffs reduce German exports to the US between 2.4% and 3.0% and decrease value added by 0.02%. These small effects for Germany, compared to scenarios with a flat 20% increase in US tariffs, are mostly due to the relatively low tariff gap between the US and the EU.
• However, the opposite scenario arises if the EU negotiates “full reciprocal tariffs” with the US – implying that the US also lowers tariffs when its own are higher. In this case, German value added and welfare increase.