Economic Experts Survey: Experts in Western Europe and the US are the Most Afraid of Trump

Regarding economic growth, opinions among experts are notably divided. In Western Europe, pessimism dominates, with over 80% of respondents predicting negative effects on economic growth under Trump’s presidency. Similarly, experts in North America share a predominantly negative outlook. In contrast, opinions in other parts of the world, particularly in Africa and Asia, are less critical. In many regions across these continents, the majority of experts do not foresee a significant negative impact on their countries’ economic growth.

Experts’ views on the future of trade policies reveal a broader consensus, with 80% of all experts sharing negative expectations. In North America, Europe, and Oceania, nearly all experts predict that international trade will become more challenging under Trump’s administration. While experts in Asia, Africa, and South America share similar apprehensions, the level of concern is somewhat lower. The regions most optimistic about economic growth – such as Central and Southern Asia, as well as Northern, Eastern, and Southern Africa – also exhibit more positive expectations for trade policies. This contrast highlights regional differences in how Trump’s trade agenda is perceived, with some areas potentially seeing opportunities rather than obstacles.

The global agreement is similarly large when it comes to the impact of Trump’s presidency on climate policies, 78% of experts expect a negative effect. Across nearly all regions, experts anticipate significant challenges, expecting climate policies to become less ambitious and less prioritized.
This pessimistic outlook is particularly prevalent in Northern America, Europe, Central and Eastern Asia. However, there are exceptions. Experts across Africa are less pessimistic, with experts particularly in Southern and Middle Africa less likely to foresee substantial setbacks in climate policy under Trump’s leadership.
 

Despite these concerns, there are areas where experts express more neutral or even positive expectations. Notably, Trump’s presidency is not widely expected to have a detrimental effect on efforts to resolve current conflicts or on overall security levels. 40% and 50% of all experts expect negative effects.
However, experts in Northern America, Europe, and Oceania continue to hold some of the most pessimistic views. One possible explanation lies in their expectations regarding the future of international organizations. The figure below illustrates that the vast majority of experts in these regions (as well as in South America) predict a negative effect on the role and influence of international organizations during Trump’s presidency.
 

The Economic Experts Survey (EES) is a quarterly survey conducted by the ifo Institute and the Institute for Swiss Economic Policy. 1398 economic experts from 125 countries took part in the survey from December 4, 2024 to December 18, 2024.