Economic Experts Survey: Experts Expect Inflation Rates to Rise Worldwide (1st Quarter 2025)

Note: The figure shows the expected global average inflation rates for the years 2025 (4,0%), 2026 (3,9%) and 2028 (3,8%). The median of the averages at the country level is shown.

Global Inflation Expectations Slightly Increase 

For 2025, the expected global average inflation rate is 4.0%. This is higher than the expectations in the previous quarter (3.9% in Q4 2024). Short-term inflation expecta-tions hence do not continue to fall but rather slightly increase again. Experts also expect high inflation rates worldwide in the years ahead. With an average expected inflation rate of 3.9% for 2026, expectations globally are only 0.1 p.p. lower compared to expectations for 2025. In the long term up to 2028, inflation expectations also re-main at a high level of 3.8%. This represents a strong increase compared with the previous quarter (3.5%). Long-term inflation expectations are hence increasing again. The figure below visualizes these trends over time.
 

Note: The figure shows the expected global average inflation rates for the years 2025 and 2027 over time. The median of the averages at the country level is shown in each case.

Inflation Expectations Above Targets in the Short-Run

Inflation expectations vary widely across the world regions. For 2025, experts expect the lowest inflation rates in Western Europe (2.1%). Expectations in Northern America, Oceania, and Northern Europe are slightly higher (2.8%-3.2%). Notably, expectations in Northern America have increased significantly compared to previ-ous estimates, reflecting ongoing inflationary pressures. Expectations in other parts of Europe (Southern Europe: 3.4%, Eastern Europe: 7.4%) remain above central banks’ inflation targets. Within Asia, there is substantial heterogeneity across sub-regions. While expectations in Eastern Asia (3.8%) and South-Eastern Asia (3.2%) are only slightly elevated compared to inflation targets, expectations are significantly higher in Western, Southern, and Central Asia (7.2%, 8.7%, and 10.7%). With the exception of Southern Africa (4.7%), all other African regions expect short-run in-flation rates to be well above average (Western Africa: 9.4%; Middle Africa: 15.2%; Eastern Africa: 28.4%; Northern Africa: 36.1%). In the Americas, inflation expecta-tions are mixed, ranging from 3.2% in Northern America to 24.6% in South Ameri-ca. Experts in Central America and the Caribbean report relatively moderate expec-tations at 3.7%.
In the long term, experts have inflation expectations with varying dynamics in the world regions. For 2028, experts expect inflation rates in Western Europe (2.1%), Northern Europe (2.6%), Oceania (2.8%) to almost return to or approach the 2% inflation rate targeted by many central banks. However, for some sub-regions, the expectations are higher than in the previous quarter. Higher long-term inflation ex-pectations are recorded for example in Southern Europe (3.0%), Northern America (3.3%), Eastern Europe (4.7%), Eastern Asia (4.0%), Southern Asia (9.3%), and in Southern Africa (4.5%). The highest long-term inflation rates are expected in Middle Africa (12.5%) and Eastern Africa (21.1%).

The Economic Experts Survey (EES) is a quarterly survey conducted by the ifo Insti-tute. 1489 economic experts from 131 countries took part in the survey on inflation from March 11, 2025 to March 25, 2025.

 

Notes: The table shows the inflation expectations of experts in different world regions for the EES Q1 wave in 2025.