A Quarter of Ukrainian Refugees Want to Settle Abroad Permanently

Almost 25 percent of Ukrainian refugees in Europe plan to settle outside Ukraine in the long term, as shown by an ifo Institute survey of Ukrainian refugees from June 2024. “Around 35 percent of Ukrainian refugees want to return to Ukraine as soon as it is safe there again. Only 4 percent plan to return soon, regardless of the security situation there,” says Panu Poutvaara, Director of the ifo Center for Migration Research. Almost 11 percent of the refugees have already returned to Ukraine. A further 25 percent are undecided.

“Our results show that, although many of the Ukrainians who have fled still want to return to their country, the course of the war is a decisive factor for the vast majority. The longer the conflict lasts, the more there are who can imagine a future outside Ukraine,” says Yvonne Giesing, a migration researcher at ifo. Shortly after fleeing, only 10 percent of the Ukrainians stated that they intended to settle outside Ukraine in the long term. By the end of 2023, that figure had risen by an average of 1.6 percentage points per 100 days, while the actual return rate was 2.7 percentage points. By contrast, immediately after fleeing, almost 60 percent wanted to return to Ukraine as soon as they felt safe there again. Over time, this figure has fallen sharply by an average of 4.7 percentage points per 100 days.