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Economic Experts Survey (EES) — 6 May 2024

ifo Expert Survey: Negative Effects in Northern and Eastern Europe Due to War in Ukraine

Economic experts in Northern and Eastern Europe are seeing the negative impact of the war in Ukraine on the political and economic situation in their countries particularly clearly. This is a finding of the Economic Experts Survey (EES) conducted by the ifo Institute and the Swiss Economic Policy Institute (IWP). “Since the outbreak of the war, respondents who mention the keywords ‘Russia,’ ‘Ukraine,’ ‘NATO’ or ‘War’ in their answers have a much more negative view of their country’s political and economic situation than the others,” says ifo researcher Tuuli Tähtinen.

Economic Experts Survey (EES) — 19 April 2024

Economic Experts Survey: Further Decline in Inflation Expected in the Short Term (1st Quarter 2024)

How are economists’ expectations for future price developments evolving worldwide? Can we observe a decline in inflation expectations? The latest wave of the Economic Expert Survey (EES) by the ifo Institute and the Institute for Swiss Economic Policy examines economists’ inflation expectations at a global level. The result: although inflation expectations worldwide remain well above central banks’ inflation target, there is a further decline in the expected inflation rate for 2024 compared to previous quarters. However, long-term inflation expectations show a stagnating or rising trend.

Economic Experts Survey (EES) — 8 February 2024

Economic Experts Survey: Substantial Risk of Recession by the End of 2024 According to Economic Experts (Q4 2023)

As the growth expectations of many experts in the Economic Experts Survey for 2024 are below average, the question arises as to how high the probability of a recession is in the respective countries. The growth forecasts did not include a confidence interval, so it could be that many experts expect significantly lower growth rates in their countries in the most pessimistic scenario. Furthermore, even if growth rates are positive for the year as a whole, a country could experience a technical recession during the year (two consecutive quarters with growth rates below 0%). To assess the likelihood of such scenarios, we asked the experts in the Economic Experts Survey about the probability of a recession occurring in their country by the end of 2024.

Economic Experts Survey (EES) — 23 January 2024

Economic Experts Survey: Experts expect 2.6% Growth Worldwide (4th Quarter 2023)

Many countries around the world experienced a sharp decline in economic activity during the Covid-19 pandemic, followed by a gradual recovery. With high inflation, geopolitical conflicts, and ongoing supply chain disruptions, many regions of the world are once again facing uncertain economic development in the coming years. In the Economic Experts Survey for the fourth quarter of 2023, we therefore asked economic experts about their expectations for (real) GDP growth in 2024 (short-term forecasts) as well as in 2025 and 2027 (medium- and longer-term forecasts).

Economic Experts Survey (EES) — 5 January 2024

Economic Experts Survey: Decline in Inflation Expected in the New Year (Q4 2023)

How are economists’ expectations for future price developments evolving worldwide? Can we observe a decline in inflation expectations? The latest wave of the Economic Expert Survey (EES) by the ifo Institute and the Institute for Swiss Economic Policy examines economists’ inflation expectations at a global level. The result: although inflation expectations worldwide remain well above central banks’ inflation target, there is a further decline in the expected inflation rate for 2024 compared to previous quarters.

Economic Experts Survey (EES) — 10 November 2023

Economic Experts Survey: Confidence in Asia and Africa, Skepticism in Europe and America (3rd Quarter 2023)

In the third quarter of 2023, the ability to overcome economic policy challenges is viewed much more critically than in the previous quarter, particularly in Europe and North and South America. A similar picture can also be seen in the assessment of political performance in these regions. This contrasts with large parts of Asia and Africa, where both economic policy and the political situation are perceived to have improved.

Economic Experts Survey (EES) — 19 October 2023

Economic Experts Survey: Economists Expect Inflation to Fall Worldwide (Q3 2023)

How are economists’ expectations for future price developments evolving worldwide? Can a decline in inflation expectations be observed? The latest survey of the Economic Experts Survey (EES) of the ifo Institute and the Institute for Swiss Economic Policy examines inflation expectations of economists on a global level. The result: although inflation expectations worldwide remain well above central banks’ inflation target, a further decline in the expected inflation rate for 2023 compared with previous quarters is evident.

Economic Experts Survey (EES) — 31 July 2023

Economic Experts Survey: High Increases in House Prices Expected Worldwide (Q2 2023)

How do economists view the future of the real estate market? The latest Economic Experts Survey (EES) conducted by the ifo Institute and the Institute for Swiss Economic Policy (IWP) examines economists’ house price expectations on a global level.

Economic Experts Survey (EES) — 17 July 2023

Economic Experts Survey: Inflation Expectations Remain High Worldwide (Q2 2023)

How are economists’ expectations for future price developments unfolding worldwide? Are the central banks’ major interest rate hikes having an impact, and can we observe a decline in inflation expectations? The latest wave of the Economic Experts Survey (EES) conducted by the ifo Institute and the Swiss Economic Policy Institute examines economists’ inflation expectations at the global level. The result: inflation expectations remain at a high level worldwide. Even though it is true that the expected inflation rate for 2023 has declined slowly over the past three quarters, there have been no noticeable changes compared with the previous wave of the EES survey (first quarter of 2023).

Economic Experts Survey (EES) — 12 May 2023

Economic Experts Survey: Confidence Particularly in Political Stability (1st Quarter 2023)

In the 1st quarter of 2023, Europe and South America in particular were much more critical about overcoming economic policy challenges than in the previous quarter. A similar picture can also be seen in the assessment of political performance in these regions. In contrast, the perception in North and Central America, large parts of Asia, and East and West Africa is that both economic policy and the political situation have improved. With a few exceptions in Southern Europe, experts worldwide see a noticeable improvement in political stability in their home countries.

Economic Experts Survey (EES) — 13 April 2023

Economic Experts Survey: Inflation Remains High Worldwide (Q1 2023)

How are economists’ expectations for future price developments evolving worldwide? Are the central banks’ sizeable interest rate hikes having an impact, and can we observe a decline in inflation expectations? The latest wave of the Economic Expert Survey (EES) conducted by the ifo Institute and the Swiss Economic Policy Institute examines economists’ inflation expectations at the global level. The result: high inflation rates are still expected worldwide. It is true that the expected inflation rate for 2023 has slowly declined over the past three quarters. However, there have been no noticeable changes compared with the last wave of the EES survey (Q4 2022).

Economic Experts Survey (EES) — 13 February 2023

Economic Experts Survey: Global Pessimistic Growth Expectations for 2023 Brighten by 2026 – Except in Europe (Q4 2022)

Do economic experts around the world expect a recession in 2023? And what are the long-term expectations for economic development? This round of the Economic Expert Survey (EES) conducted by the ifo Institute and the Swiss Economic Policy Institute examines economists’ expectations for economic growth at the global level.

Economic Experts Survey (EES) — 5 January 2023

Economic Experts Survey: Inflation Expectations Peak, Level Remains High (Q4 2022)

How are economists’ expectations for future price developments developing worldwide? Are the central banks’ major interest rate hikes having an impact and can we observe a decline in inflation expectations? The current wave of the Economic Expert Survey (EES) conducted by the ifo Institute and the Swiss Economic Policy Institute examines economists’ inflation expectations at the global level. The result: high inflation rates are still expected worldwide. However, inflation expectations have fallen somewhat compared with expectations in the previous quarter.

Economic Experts Survey (EES) — 23 December 2022

Economic Experts Survey: Europe Less Well Equipped to Meet Future Economic Policy Challenges (Q4 2022)

In Q4 2022, Europe, South America, and Northern and Central Africa, in particular, are rated significantly more negatively in terms of their ability to cope with economic policy challenges in the future. This picture can also be observed in the assessment of the performance of governments in these regions. This contrasts with North and Central America, large parts of Asia, and Eastern and Western Africa, where both economic 

Economic Experts Survey (EES) — 2 November 2022

Economic Experts Survey: Slightly Improved Assessment of Economic Policy Worldwide (Q3 2022)

Economic policy worldwide is assessed as slightly better in Q3 2022 than in the previous quarter. The exceptions are Eastern Europe, West Africa, and South America. Political performance is also viewed much more critically in these regions. These are the findings of the Economic Experts Survey (EES), a global survey of economic experts conducted jointly by the ifo Institute and the Swiss Economic Policy Institute (IWP) on a quarterly basis.

Economic Experts Survey (EES) — 17 October 2022

Economic Experts Survey: Strong Rise in Global Inflation Expectations (Q3 2022)

What expectations do economists worldwide have for future price developments? To what extent are geopolitical challenges and the energy crisis reflected in experts’ rising inflation expectations? The current wave of the Economic Expert Survey (EES) conducted by the ifo Institute and the Swiss Economic Policy Institute examines economists’ inflation expectations at the global level. The result: high inflation rates are expected worldwide. Inflation expectations have risen significantly compared with expectations in the previous quarter.

Economic Experts Survey (EES) — 14 July 2022

Economic Experts Survey: High Inflation Expectations Worldwide for the Next Few Years (2 Quarter 2022)

What are economists’ expectations regarding future price developments? This round of the Economic Expert Survey (EES), conducted by the ifo Institute and the Swiss Economic Policy Institute, examines the inflation expectations of economists worldwide. The result: high price increases are expected worldwide in the coming years.

Economic Experts Survey (EES) — 12 July 2022

Economic Experts Survey: Economists See Bright Spot for Political Situation in Almost All World Regions (Q2 2022)

The assessment of the political situation has improved in many regions of the world compared to the first quarter of 2022, in some cases substantially. However, there are strong regional differences in the global assessment of current economic policy. These are the main findings of the Economic Experts Survey (EES), a global survey of economic experts conducted jointly by the ifo Institute and the Swiss Institute for Economic Policy (IWP) on a quarterly basis. 

Economic Experts Survey (EES) — 11 April 2022

Economic Experts Survey: Experts Worldwide Call for Significant Relaxation of Covid-19 Health Measures (Q1 2022)

Due to the Omicron variant, the Covid-19 pandemic regained momentum in the first quarter of 2022 in many countries, leading to significant restrictions on economic activity. Nevertheless, participants in the Economic Experts Survey (EES) see a significant quarter-on-quarter improvement in global Covid-19 health measures and call for relaxing restrictions. 

Economic Experts Survey (EES) — 24 March 2022

Economic Experts Survey: Political Climate Deteriorating Worldwide (Q1 2022)

The global economic situation remained tense in Q1 2022. The coronavirus pandemic regained momentum in many countries through the Omicron variant and led to significant restrictions on economic activity. The geopolitical break caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, is also affecting the global political and economic climate. The Economic Experts Survey (EES), a quarterly survey conducted by the ifo Institute and the Swiss Economic Policy Institute, captures the assessments of international economics experts on the current economic policy and the political climate. 1,603 economic experts from 132 countries participated in the survey, which ran from February 16, 2022, to March 2, 2022.