Estimating the Effect of China’s 2013 Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan

In 2013, China introduced the ambitious Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan (APPCAP) targeting ambient fine particle (PM2.5) pollution. Using panel data covering 239 countries and territories worldwide, from 2000 to 2019, I provide quasi-experimental estimates of nationwide reductions in PM2.5 exposure achieved since 2013. I find that the APPCAP lowered PM2.5 exposure of the average Chinese resident in 2019 by over 20%, reducing PM2.5-related deaths by between 220 and 280 thousand depending on estimation strategy. Monetizing the mortality reductions with recent values of statistical life suggests total benefits of up to 1 trillion Renminbi or 1% of Gross Domestic Output.